Hunch. Pope Leo had part of his right lung removed on 13 October, and none of the nine earlier trips came so soon after an operation.
The countries market resolves on the vatican.va page of the journey and its dated speeches and homilies: YES if by the end of 17 November 2026, Rome time, Pope Leo has taken part in at least one public event of the plan in each of Uruguay, Argentina and Peru. If any country is dropped, or the trip is cancelled or broken off before Peru, it resolves NO, with BBC News and The Independent as backups.
We looked for cases where a pope over 70 went on a foreign trip of eight days or more to three or more countries, under a plan the Vatican published. We found nine such trips, from 1970 to 2026. Seven of them were made by John Paul II. The Vatican’s online list of papal trips starts with Paul VI in 1964.