Hunch. Pope Leo had part of his right lung removed on 13 October, and on this plan a single missed event is enough for NO.
The every-event market resolves on the vatican.va plan of the journey and the Holy See Press Office bulletins: YES if every public event written in capital letters in the plan takes place with Pope Leo there in person, even if moved within the same day. It resolves NO if the Holy See, BBC News or The Independent report that any such event or city was cancelled or held without him, and meals, private visits and the way he travels do not count.
We looked for cases where a pope over 70 went on a foreign trip of eight days or more to three or more countries, under a plan the Vatican published. We found nine such trips, from 1970 to 2026. Seven of them were made by John Paul II. The Vatican’s online list of papal trips starts with Paul VI in 1964.