Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market28 Oct 2026

Does Pope Leo take the 14 November helicopter to Succhabamba?

BinaryResolves 14 Nov 2026
Hunch56%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 14 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. On 26 October the Vatican said the trip keeps its published plan, which still has both helicopter flights on 14 November.

How this resolves

The helicopter market resolves on the Holy See Press Office bulletins and the vatican.va page of the journey: YES if on 14 November 2026 Pope Leo reaches Santa Cruz de Succhabamba by helicopter. It resolves NO if the flight is cancelled or replaced by road, the Mass there is cancelled or held without him, or he is not in Peru that day, with BBC News and The Independent as backups.

The pattern behind it

9 of 9
Nine of nine times a pope over 70 went on a foreign trip of eight days or more to three or more countries, he reached every country on the plan. None had an operation shortly before.

We looked for cases where a pope over 70 went on a foreign trip of eight days or more to three or more countries, under a plan the Vatican published. We found nine such trips, from 1970 to 2026. Seven of them were made by John Paul II. The Vatican’s online list of papal trips starts with Paul VI in 1964.