Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market17 Oct 2026

Will the EU send OpenAI a formal question about ChatGPT by 31 Dec?

BinaryResolves 31 Dec 2026
History29%
Hunch17%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 31 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. Seven weeks after the decision the Commission's own list shows no question to OpenAI, while the fastest earlier request came in four weeks.

How this resolves

The ChatGPT market resolves on the European Commission's page listing its oversight of very large online platforms and search engines, and on its press releases: YES if by the end of 31 December 2026 the Commission makes public a request for information to OpenAI about ChatGPT or opens an investigation into it under the Digital Services Act, and NO if it does not. Reports in Politico Europe and Reuters settle it if the Commission pages cannot be read.

The pattern behind it

2 of 7
Count seven services across four action clusters, with two receiving a request or proceedings within 122 days. Temu and Shein share one action; three adult services share another. XNXX had proceedings after 321 days, not a separate information request. This combined historical outcome is only a partial analogue for a request-only market.

We looked for cases where the European Commission gave a large online service its strictest status under the DSA after the first round of 2023, when its checks were already running. We found seven such services from 2023 to 2026. Two got a formal request for information within four months, both in the same letter. In the first round of 19 services in 2023, none got one that fast.