History. Four of five came home, all within 30 days of the court decision.
Hunch. The Times reports that Puigdemont may come back for the 29 November election, and the campaign itself only starts on 13 November.
The return market resolves on a public statement by Carles Puigdemont or his party Junts per Catalunya, confirmed by The Guardian or BBC News: YES if he is in Catalonia before 0:00 on 13 November 2026, when the campaign starts. If there is no statement, two reports of his arrival by The Guardian, BBC News or Reuters settle it.
We looked for cases where a court lifted or paused an arrest warrant or prison sentence against a politician living abroad, while a separate step by another judge, court or government was still needed to end the matter. We found five since 2018, in four countries. Two of them were the same man, Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, in the same year.