History. Three of five came home before the final step by another judge or body. In Spain in 2024 the second court acted first.
Hunch. Judge Pablo Llarena wrote on 6 October that he will rule without delay once he has the full text of the court's decision.
The final ruling market resolves on Judge Pablo Llarena's orders on poderjudicial.es and on reports of the return by The Guardian or BBC News: YES if Puigdemont is in Catalonia before the day the judge confirms or changes his 6 October order, NO if the ruling comes first or there is no return by 29 November 2026. A return and a ruling on the same day make the market void.
We looked for cases where a court lifted or paused an arrest warrant or prison sentence against a politician living abroad, while a separate step by another judge, court or government was still needed to end the matter. We found five since 2018, in four countries. Two of them were the same man, Mohamed Nasheed of the Maldives, in the same year.