Hunch. Rory McIlroy, seven times the season winner, is chasing, and Chacarra himself says "Rory always plays good in Dubai".
The Chacarra market resolves on the final Race to Dubai ranking after the DP World Tour Championship on 15 November 2026: YES if Eugenio Chacarra is first and NO if anyone else is, on an earlier day if the season is settled before the final event. The tour's own site is closed to checks, so BBC Sport and Sky Sports settle it, and if no winner is named by 30 November the market is void.
We looked for cases where a golfer led the Race to Dubai with three events of the season left and had never won the ranking before. We found eight such seasons from 2010 to 2021. In six of them the leader won the season. Twice he was passed at the final event in Dubai, by Jon Rahm in 2019 and by Lee Westwood in 2020.