Hunch. Rory McIlroy has won the Race to Dubai seven times and Chacarra himself says "Rory always plays good in Dubai".
The McIlroy market resolves on the same final ranking after 15 November 2026: YES if Rory McIlroy is first and NO if anyone else is. BBC Sport and Sky Sports settle it, and if no winner is named by 30 November the market is void.
We looked for cases where a golfer led the Race to Dubai with three events of the season left and had never won the ranking before. We found eight such seasons from 2010 to 2021. In six of them the leader won the season. Twice he was passed at the final event in Dubai, by Jon Rahm in 2019 and by Lee Westwood in 2020.