From 13 September to 28 October 2026 neither GOV.UK, including the Budget 2026 document, nor Hansard gave a new number, end date or definition for the 1.5 million homes target; ministers in the Lords on 15 September and 12 October only restated it as a stretch target.
The market resolves on gov.uk, including the MHCLG and HM Treasury publications of the 28 October Budget, and on Hansard: YES if a document or Commons statement dated 13 September to 28 October 2026 states a new number, a new end date or a new definition for the 1.5 million homes commitment, such as a longer period, a UK-wide count or a council-homes figure in its place, while restating the target as a stretch, an ambition or a slim chance does not count. If gov.uk and Hansard carry nothing, BBC and Guardian reports of a formal change settle it, and silence on all four by 23:59 GMT on 28 October resolves NO.
Four of eight ministers who admitted a miss saw the target changed. We looked for UK ministers since 2014 who said in public, before the deadline, that a main government target would probably be missed or had already been missed. We found eight. In four of them, a published document or Commons statement changed, redefined or dropped the target within 60 days.