MHCLG's release of 24 September 2026 puts seasonally adjusted building control starts for April to June 2026 at 35,910, a 6% rise on January to March 2026.
(adjacent). The market resolves on the MHCLG release Housing supply: indicators of new supply, England: April to June 2026, scheduled on gov.uk for 24 September 2026 at 9:30: YES if the seasonally adjusted building control starts figure for April to June 2026 is higher than the January to March 2026 figure as printed in that same release (33,960 in the June release, which may be revised), and equal or lower resolves NO. If gov.uk postpones the release, the market resolves on the new date shown on the announcement page with BBC and Guardian reports as the fallback, and no release by 7 October resolves NO.
Four of eight ministers who admitted a miss saw the target changed. We looked for UK ministers since 2014 who said in public, before the deadline, that a main government target would probably be missed or had already been missed. We found eight. In four of them, a published document or Commons statement changed, redefined or dropped the target within 60 days.