Hunch. With oil back above $110, the bank now expects inflation to climb to about 4.5% by the end of 2026, the same fuel shock that led it to raise again in May.
The December rate market resolves on the Reserve Bank of Australia's statement after the board meeting of 7 and 8 December 2026, published on rba.gov.au on 8 December: YES if the cash rate target stays at 4.85%, and NO if the bank raises or cuts it. If the meeting is moved, the market resolves on the next scheduled decision, and Guardian and Reuters reports settle it if the bank's pages do not open.
We looked for cases where the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its rate at two or more meetings in a row, and its statement on the last rise said nothing about more rises. We found eight such meetings since 1990, from 2000 to 2026. Seven times the bank kept the rate at the next meeting.