Hunch. The bank itself expects inflation to rise to about 4.5% by the end of 2026 and says the risks are still tilted up.
The February market resolves on the bank's statements of 8 December 2026 and 9 February 2027 on rba.gov.au: YES if the cash rate target is raised at either meeting, and NO if it is kept or cut at both. Guardian and Reuters reports settle it if the bank's pages do not open.
We looked for cases where the Reserve Bank of Australia raised its rate at two or more meetings in a row, and its statement on the last rise said nothing about more rises. We found eight such meetings since 1990, from 2000 to 2026. Seven times the bank kept the rate at the next meeting.