History. 6 of 7: India 2018 and 2022, UK 2021, Thailand 2004 and 2008, Australia 2026; the UK in 2017 held.
Hunch. On 7 October the committee said its next step can be a rise or a pause, and two of its six members wanted to keep a neutral plan.
The rate rise market resolves on the Reserve Bank of India's rate committee statement of 4 December 2026 on rbi.org.in: YES if the main rate is above 5.50%, counting any rise at an unplanned meeting before then, and NO if it is 5.50% or lower. BBC News and The Guardian are the backup.
We looked for cases where a central bank rate committee raised its rate for the first time after its last move had been a cut. We found seven: two from India's own committee and five from the UK, Thailand and Australia. Like India's, each of those committees has members from outside the bank and votes by majority to hit an inflation target.