History. 2 of 7: India 2022 (0.40 then 0.50 point) and UK 2021 (0.15 then 0.25 point) raised by a bigger step the second time.
Hunch. On 7 October all six members chose a 0.25 point step and named the new plan calibrated tightening.
The step size market resolves on the same statement: YES if the main rate is 5.80% or higher and NO if it is 5.75% or lower. BBC News and The Guardian are the backup.
We looked for cases where a central bank rate committee raised its rate for the first time after its last move had been a cut. We found seven: two from India's own committee and five from the UK, Thailand and Australia. Like India's, each of those committees has members from outside the bank and votes by majority to hit an inflation target.