Hunch. The BBC reported on 9 October that last year the health department made a pay offer in November to stop threatened action.
The strike market resolves on RCN announcements at rcn.org.uk and BBC News NI: YES if RCN members in Northern Ireland's health service hold at least one day of full strike, not only action short of a strike, by 31 December 2026, and NO if there is a strike mandate but no strike day by then. It is void if the vote gives no strike mandate, the RCN stops the vote or no result is announced by 31 December, and the Belfast Telegraph and Irish News settle it if those pages are silent.
We looked for cases where health workers in Northern Ireland voted on a strike over pay while the government had no full budget for the year. We found five votes, in 2019, 2022 and 2023. All five backed a strike. In three, the first strike came within six weeks of the result.