Hunch. The BBC reported on 9 October that last year the health department made its pay offer in November to head off action, so an offer could still come during the vote.
The strike vote market resolves on the RCN announcement at rcn.org.uk and BBC News NI: YES if most members who voted back a strike in the vote that closes at noon on 20 November, counting a result announced by 23:59 on 27 November, and NO if most vote against. It is void if the RCN stops the vote before it closes or no result is out by 27 November, and the Belfast Telegraph and Irish News settle it if those pages are silent.
We looked for cases where health workers in Northern Ireland voted on a strike over pay while the government had no full budget for the year. We found five votes, in 2019, 2022 and 2023. All five backed a strike. In three, the first strike came within six weeks of the result.