Tue, 19 May 2026
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Market12 Sep 2026

Does the Electoral Commission open a Reform £72m inquiry by 13 Oct?

BinaryResolves 13 Oct 2026
Hunch22%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The Electoral Commission site could not be read (Cloudflare block), and by 13 October 2026 neither BBC News nor the Guardian reported the Commission opening an investigation into the Delo or Harborne donations; BBC on 7 October mentions only the Met Police inquiry.

Resolved 13 Oct 2026
How this resolves

(adjacent). Resolves YES if by 23:59 BST on 13 October 2026 the Electoral Commission publishes on electoralcommission.org.uk a statement opening an investigation into Reform UK's September 2026 donations from Ben Delo or Christopher Harborne; a general comment on donation rules, a reply to the minister's letter without an investigation, or the Met Police inquiry resolves NO. The Commission's site blocks automated fetches, so BBC and Guardian reports of the announcement settle it and silence resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

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Eight times since 2001 a rival party got a big donation. None led to a government bill to cap donations within 31 days. Two got one within 90 days: Harborne's £9m (bill on day 70) and the June 2026 filings (day 32 to 90).

We looked for big gifts since 2001 to a party that was not in government: a single gift of £1m or more that set a record for that party or for the whole system. We included the UK and Australia's Palmer returns. We found eight. In none of them did the government table a bill or amendment to limit donations within a month. Two got one within 90 days, both through bills already under way.