Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market12 Sep 2026

Does the minister promise a government cap amendment on 14 Sep?

BinaryResolves 14 Sep 2026
Hunch30%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Winding up the Lords second reading on 14 September 2026, Baroness Taylor of Stevenage promised a cross-government task and finish team on political funding and an Electoral Commission review of spending limits, and gave no commitment to a government amendment capping donations from UK residents (hansard.parliament.uk). The Guardian reported the same evening that government sources did not want to delay the bill by considering such a cap (theguardian.com).

Resolved 14 Sep 2026
How this resolves

(adjacent). Resolves YES if, in the Lords second reading debate on 14 September 2026 as recorded in Hansard, the minister replying for the government says the government will bring or support an amendment setting an annual limit on donations from UK-resident individuals or companies; a promise of a taskforce, review or consultation resolves NO. If Hansard is not readable, BBC and Guardian reports of the debate settle it; silence resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

0 of 8
Eight times since 2001 a rival party got a big donation. None led to a government bill to cap donations within 31 days. Two got one within 90 days: Harborne's £9m (bill on day 70) and the June 2026 filings (day 32 to 90).

We looked for big gifts since 2001 to a party that was not in government: a single gift of £1m or more that set a record for that party or for the whole system. We included the UK and Australia's Palmer returns. We found eight. In none of them did the government table a bill or amendment to limit donations within a month. Two got one within 90 days, both through bills already under way.