Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market18 Jul 2026

Will Arsenal make a formal bid of £100m or more for Rogers by 27 Jul 2026?

BinaryResolves 27 Jul 2026
Hunch61%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No formal Arsenal bid was reported. Sky Sports reported Chelsea's agreed 117m pound deal on 19 July and Chelsea's completed signing on 22 July, which closed the window for any Arsenal offer.

Resolved 22 Jul 2026
How this resolves

resolves YES if at least two of BBC Sport, Sky Sports News and The Athletic report that Arsenal have submitted a formal bid of £100m or more (guaranteed fee, add-ons excluded unless stated) to Aston Villa by 23:59 BST, 27 Jul 2026.

The pattern behind it

2 of 6
Two of the last six £100m-plus transfer sagas involving Premier League buyers were completed before 1 August. Three ran into August or September and one, Kane to Manchester City, never happened.

Only two of the six £100m-plus deals were done before August. We looked at every transfer of £100m or more with a Premier League club buying, and Rogers would be the seventh. The earlier six show how rarely these long transfer stories finish in July, and how often they run deep into August or fall apart.