History. Stand-in base by deadline: five of the seven cases had deadlines of years, now it is 59 days; the short cluster is two of seven (England 2020 not met by the deadline, Dublin 2014 met).
Hunch. Housing Secretary Angela Rayner said on 25 October 'we will not back down', and the goal she defends asks only for an offer, which the government itself counts.
The offer market resolves on GOV.UK news from the Prime Minister's Office and the housing ministry: YES if by the end of 24 December 2026, London time, either of them says that everyone sleeping rough in England was offered a route off the street or support. A statement about a share only, such as over 90%, or no statement, is NO, and BBC News and The Guardian settle it if GOV.UK does not open.
We looked for cases where a government or mayor in Britain or Ireland promised that, by a named date, everyone sleeping rough would be offered a place to stay, or that rough sleeping would end. We found seven such promises from 2008 to 2020, five in England and two in Ireland. One was met on time, in Dublin in 2014.