Hunch. Steve Witkoff flies to St Petersburg on 21 October with peace proposals agreed in Oslo, including a meeting of leaders.
The joint text market resolves on the White House statements page: YES if by the end of 19 November 2026 the US and Russia, at the level of president or foreign minister, sign or jointly publish a written text on ending the war in Ukraine, including a three-way text with China or Ukraine. A meeting without a joint text, separate statements, or a text only on sanctions or on other topics such as nuclear arms counts as NO, and BBC News and The Guardian settle it if the official page is silent.
We looked for cases where a country eased, paused or did not bring in sanctions on a rival, and its leaders said it was to keep talks with that rival going. We found six such times since 1999, all by the US. Four were with North Korea, one with China and one with Venezuela. Only once did the rival answer within a month with a new step: a joint statement with China after six days.