Hunch. The Oslo proposals that Witkoff takes to Russia on 21 October include a meeting of Trump, Putin and Zelensky.
The peace talks market resolves on the official pages of the presidents of Ukraine and Russia: YES if by the end of 19 November 2026 official delegations of both countries meet in person, alone or with the US, and both governments name the meeting as peace talks. Talks only on prisoner swaps, contact through a go-between or statements of readiness count as NO, and BBC News and The Guardian decide if the official pages do not open.
We looked for cases where a country eased, paused or did not bring in sanctions on a rival, and its leaders said it was to keep talks with that rival going. We found six such times since 1999, all by the US. Four were with North Korea, one with China and one with Venezuela. Only once did the rival answer within a month with a new step: a joint statement with China after six days.