No Russian diesel was unloaded in the US by 31 October 2026: the US Treasury's press releases up to 30 October say nothing of an import, and The Guardian reported on 29 October that the tankers were still at sea, with the first cargoes due only after the 3 November elections.
History. 1 of 4: when a government let in oil from a supplier it had banned, the first cargo arrived within 22 days only for Iraqi oil in the US in December 1996; Libyan oil in the US in 2004, Iranian oil in the EU in 2016 and Venezuelan oil in the US in 2022-23 took 39 to 68 days.
Hunch. Trump said on 9 October that Russia will supply over 300,000 tonnes immediately, and the Kremlin said it is ready to supply the US market.
The import market resolves on statements by the US Treasury, the White House or the Department of Energy, confirmed by BBC News or The Guardian, or on two of these media if the official pages do not open. YES if by 11:59pm Eastern time on 31 October Russian-origin diesel has been unloaded at a US port or brought into the US for use there, while fuel for the ship itself, fuel held for re-export and fuel passing through to another country do not count.
We looked for cases where a government eased sanctions on oil or fuel from a rival or sanctioned country, and said it did so to bring prices down or keep supply flowing. We found eight such moves from 2018 to 2026, seven by the US and one by the UK. Each time we compared the weekly diesel price in the week of the move with the first weekly price four weeks later.