Hunch. Russia's diesel output is down by nearly 30% after Ukrainian attacks on its refineries, and Putin named no amounts.
The November market resolves on statements by the White House, the US Treasury, the Department of Energy or the Kremlin, confirmed by BBC News or The Guardian, or on two of these media if the official pages do not open. YES if by 11:59pm Eastern time on 30 November it is published that under the 9 October deal Russia shipped at least 500,000 tonnes of diesel in November to the US or world markets, on top of the first 300,000 tonnes, and NO if the figure is smaller or no figure is published.
We looked for cases where a government eased sanctions on oil or fuel from a rival or sanctioned country, and said it did so to bring prices down or keep supply flowing. We found eight such moves from 2018 to 2026, seven by the US and one by the UK. Each time we compared the weekly diesel price in the week of the move with the first weekly price four weeks later.