AAA's national average diesel price as of 3 November 2026 was $6.2875 a gallon (the page marks it 'Price as of 11/3/26'), not below $6.28, and the US Energy Information Administration weekly diesel price for 2 November was $6.292; BBC News and The Guardian did not report the figure, so the two official price series settle it.
History. 4 of 8: lower four weeks later in November 2018, April 2026, May 2026 (US) and May 2026 (UK); higher after the four March 2026 moves.
Hunch. An analyst at Quilter Cheviot said on 9 October that the first Russian delivery is too small to change US pump prices much.
The price market resolves on the AAA national average diesel price for 3 November at gasprices.aaa.com, confirmed by BBC News or The Guardian, with the US Energy Information Administration weekly price for 2 November as backup. YES if the AAA figure is below $6.28, the average on the day of the deal, and NO if it is $6.28 or higher.
We looked for cases where a government eased sanctions on oil or fuel from a rival or sanctioned country, and said it did so to bring prices down or keep supply flowing. We found eight such moves from 2018 to 2026, seven by the US and one by the UK. Each time we compared the weekly diesel price in the week of the move with the first weekly price four weeks later.