Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market04 Sep 2026

Does Aryna Sabalenka win the 2026 US Open women's singles title on 12 September?

BinaryResolves 12 Sep 2026
History12%
Hunch32%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Aryna Sabalenka lost the US Open women's singles final to Elena Rybakina 6-4 5-7 6-2 on 12 September 2026, ending her 19-match winning run at the tournament and her bid for a third straight title (wtatennis.com, 12 September 2026; cbssports.com, 12 September 2026).

Resolved 12 Sep 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on the US Open official results (usopen.org), published at the end of the final on Saturday 12 September, or the WTA record (wtatennis.com). It resolves YES if either records Sabalenka as winner of the women's singles final; if the final is delayed, the market resolves on the day it is completed or awarded. If that source has not published in time, BBC Sport and Sky Sports settle it.

The pattern behind it

1 of 8
One of the last eight defending champions in the women's singles kept the title, and it was Sabalenka in 2025. The other seven went out by the quarter-finals: Kerber and Raducanu in the first round, Osaka in the third round in 2021, Osaka, Swiatek and Gauff in the fourth, Stephens in the quarter-finals. The full record since 2015 is one in nine, with Serena Williams losing the 2015 semi-final to Roberta Vinci; Pennetta retired before 2016 and Andreescu withdrew in 2020.

Only one of the last eight defending champions won the title again. That was Sabalenka herself, in 2025. Below is how each defence ended for the women who came back to New York as champion, newest first, from reports in the Guardian, BBC Sport and Al Jazeera.