History. 2 of 5: twice the first budget after a promised pay deal named a separate sum (teachers, 2019 and 2023); three times it did not (council workers, 2021, 2022 and 2024).
Hunch. On 4 November the Scottish Government said joint work with Cosla on the cost of cutting teachers' classroom time from August 2027 "will inform the Scottish budget".
The budget market resolves on the draft Scottish Budget 2027-28 on gov.scot, published on 3 December 2026: YES if it shows a separate sum for cutting teachers' classroom time in 2027-28, in a table or in the text, even a small one for preparation or hiring. A mention without a sum, or money inside general council funding, resolves NO, and BBC and STV News are the backups.
We looked for cases where the Scottish Government publicly promised money for a pay deal with teachers or other council workers, and then wrote its next budget. We found five such deals since 2019. Twice the next budget named a separate sum for the deal, and both were teachers' deals. Three times, for other council workers, the next budget named no sum for the deal. (GOV.SCOT; GOV.SCOT; GOV.SCOT; GOV.SCOT; GOV.SCOT)