Hunch. The Scottish Government refused on 4 November to publish its finished cost estimate, saying only that work on the cost of the first phase will inform the budget.
Resolves YES if by 3 December 2026 a Scottish minister, a gov.scot statement or the budget gives the government's own figure for the full yearly cost of the change in all schools, or for each year to 2029-30. A sum for 2027-28 alone or 'still working it out' resolves NO, and the Official Report, BBC and STV News are the backups.
We looked for cases where the Scottish Government publicly promised money for a pay deal with teachers or other council workers, and then wrote its next budget. We found five such deals since 2019. Twice the next budget named a separate sum for the deal, and both were teachers' deals. Three times, for other council workers, the next budget named no sum for the deal. (GOV.SCOT; GOV.SCOT; GOV.SCOT; GOV.SCOT; GOV.SCOT)