Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market03 Sep 2026

Will the Scottish Government name a start date for the national rollout of the £2 bus fare cap before 17 September 2026?

BinaryResolves 17 Sep 2026
Hunch15%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No Scottish Government or Transport Scotland publication named a calendar date for the national rollout of the £2 bus fare cap by 17 September 2026; the Programme for Government of 1 September committed only to a rollout by the end of the Parliament (gov.scot, transport.gov.scot, checked 20 Sep 2026).

Resolved 17 Sep 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on gov.scot and transport.gov.scot. YES if a Scottish Government publication or ministerial statement on or before 17 September 2026 names a calendar date for the national rollout. A commitment to roll out by the end of the Parliament, without a date, resolves NO. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and The Guardian settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases
Four of the four Scottish fare interventions with a named start date since 2021 began on that date: under-22s free travel in January 2022, the peak fares pilot in October 2023, permanent peak fare removal in September 2025 and the four-phase £2 cap pilot between January and March 2026. Four cases: History is not shown below six, and a perfect record on four carries a wide band rather than near-certainty. The test is narrow, about starting rather than surviving; on survival, the peak fares pilot was extended and then withdrawn on cost.

We found four Scottish fare schemes since 2021 with a start date. Each was a change to public transport fares announced by the Scottish Government, and each start date has now passed. We asked only whether each scheme began on the day named. Whether it later ended, shrank or grew is noted beside each case, because that is a separate question. Fare changes made by bus or rail companies on their own are left out.