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Market31 Aug 2026

Does the UK government publish anything on Scotland's August 2026 migration plans by 30 Sep?

BinaryResolves 30 Sep 2026
Hunch22%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

A search of gov.uk for items published 28 August to 30 September 2026 returns no news story, statement, letter or paper that mentions the Scottish Government's 29 August migration proposals or a Scottish Visa, Rural Visa or Scottish Graduate Visa; the Downing Street remark reported in the press does not count under the rule.

Resolved 30 Sep 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on gov.uk. YES if a news story, speech, written statement, correspondence or policy paper published on gov.uk on or before 30 September 2026 refers to the Scottish Government's August 2026 migration proposals or to a Scottish Visa, Rural Visa or Scottish Graduate Visa. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and The Guardian citing the gov.uk document. Statements reported only in the press do not count settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases
None of the four decided proposals since 2018 produced a Scotland-specific route. Three were put to Conservative governments; the fourth, in January 2025, was put to a Labour government whose white paper four months later cut the graduate route to 18 months rather than extending it. Four cases: History is not shown below six, and most of the record describes one party's revealed position; the 2025 case is the one test of the other.

We found four earlier Scottish requests since 2018 with a UK answer. Each time the Scottish Government sent the UK Government a formal plan for a Scotland-only migration route, or for migration powers to be handed to Scotland. We asked whether a Scotland-only route came into being within 18 months. The August 2026 paper is not counted.