Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market31 Aug 2026

Does the UK government change the immigration rules to create a Scotland-only visa route by 30 Nov?

BinaryResolves 30 Nov 2026
Hunch15%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 30 Nov 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on gov.uk, where Statements of Changes in Immigration Rules are published on the day they are laid. YES if a Statement laid on or before 30 November 2026 creates a route whose eligibility depends on residence, study or employment in Scotland or in designated Scottish rural areas. A shortage list variation or a UK-wide route does not count. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and The Guardian reporting the Statement settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases
None of the four decided proposals since 2018 produced a Scotland-specific route. Three were put to Conservative governments; the fourth, in January 2025, was put to a Labour government whose white paper four months later cut the graduate route to 18 months rather than extending it. Four cases: History is not shown below six, and most of the record describes one party's revealed position; the 2025 case is the one test of the other.

We found four earlier Scottish requests since 2018 with a UK answer. Each time the Scottish Government sent the UK Government a formal plan for a Scotland-only migration route, or for migration powers to be handed to Scotland. We asked whether a Scotland-only route came into being within 18 months. The August 2026 paper is not counted.