Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market17 Oct 2026

Will the US SEC adopt its plan to end Rule 14a-8 by 30 June 2027?

BinaryResolves 30 Jun 2027
History33%
Hunch49%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 30 Jun 2027
Why these numbers

Hunch. SEC chair Paul Atkins said there is "no better time" for this change, and no member from the other party now sits on the commission to slow it down.

How this resolves

The adoption market resolves on the Federal Register and SEC press releases: YES if by the end of 30 June 2027 the SEC signs or publishes a final rule that adopts its 16 September 2026 plan on Rule 14a-8 in full or in part, and NO if there is no such rule or the plan is withdrawn. Reports by Reuters and The New York Times settle it if the official pages cannot be read.

The pattern behind it

3 of 9
Three of nine times the SEC adopted its plan on shareholder votes, at least in part, within 287 days. Four times it took longer and twice no rule followed. Editorial scoring note: Ten proposal rows represent nine decision groups. The rival 2007 proposals share one decision; count it once. Three of nine had at least partial adoption within 287 days. Eventual adoption and full adoption are separate outcomes.

We looked for cases where the SEC published a plan to change what shareholders can put on a company's voting paper. We found ten such plans since 1976. Two were rival options put out on the same day and settled by one decision, so there were nine decisions. The SEC adopted something seven times, but each time it cut a part, changed the main limit or chose one option. Three of the nine were done within 287 days, the time from this plan to 30 June 2027.