Hunch. Since 1976 the SEC has never made full removal of the rule the main text of a plan, and in nine past decisions it never adopted a plan without cutting part of it.
The full removal market resolves YES if by the end of 30 June 2027 a final SEC rule removes Rule 14a-8 completely, with no federal rule on shareholder proposals in its place, even if it takes effect later, and NO otherwise. Changes to Rule 14a-4 do not count, and the same sources as for the adoption market settle it.
We looked for cases where the SEC published a plan to change what shareholders can put on a company's voting paper. We found ten such plans since 1976. Two were rival options put out on the same day and settled by one decision, so there were nine decisions. The SEC adopted something seven times, but each time it cut a part, changed the main limit or chose one option. Three of the nine were done within 287 days, the time from this plan to 30 June 2027.