The ONS said on 21 October 2026 that CPI inflation was 3.5% in the 12 months to September 2026, up from 3.1% in August, which The Guardian reported the same day.
History. 5 of 7: March, April, May, June and July 2022 rose again; July 2006 and March 2011 fell.
Hunch. The RAC put petrol at 174p a litre on 28 Sep, up from the 161p ONS counted in August, so fuel is still pushing the yearly rate up.
The September inflation market resolves on the ONS bulletin Consumer price inflation, UK: September 2026, out at 7am on 21 October: YES if the CPI rate for the 12 months to September is above 3.1%, and NO if it is 3.1% or lower. BBC News and The Guardian reports of the day settle it if the ONS page does not open.
We looked for cases where the ONS published UK inflation for a month in which a war abroad pushed petrol prices up, after the yearly rate had already risen two months in a row. We found seven such months since 1997, and five of them came in 2022, after Russia invaded Ukraine.