Hunch. On 26 October the election commission gave the Student List 52.54% against 39.29% for Vučić's list, a majority alone that no winner had in the six earlier early elections.
The winner market counts only if RIK declares an elected president, in the first or the second round, by the end of 27 December 2026, and is void otherwise. It resolves YES if the winner was not put forward by the SNS or the list "Aleksandar Vučić, United Serbia", as shown in the RIK final report, with BBC News and Al Jazeera as the backup.
We looked for cases where a head of state chosen directly by voters left office early, or a term ended with no one elected, and the country had to hold a new vote. We count the vote as on time if the first round came within 90 days, about the three months Serbia has now. We found six such early votes since 1999, two of them in Serbia. In four, a leader of parliament stood in as head of state.