Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market28 Oct 2026

Will the Student List file its own presidential candidate by 7 Dec?

BinaryResolves 7 Dec 2026
Hunch52%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 7 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. No count from the cases: how often a winning movement without one leader files its own candidate was not recorded. This question comes from what the Student List wants.

Hunch. On 27 October Ilija Srdanović said the movement has numerous candidates for any post, but it had not named one for president.

How this resolves

The candidate market resolves on the RIK page for presidential candidates: YES if by the end of 7 December 2026 RIK has received a candidate for president put forward by the Student List itself, as its group of citizens or a coalition it leads. Support for someone put forward by another group, or no election set, resolves NO, and BBC News and Al Jazeera settle it together if the RIK website does not open.

The pattern behind it

4 of 6
Four of six times a country had to elect a head of state early, the first round came within 90 days. In Algeria in 2019 and in Serbia in 2003 and 2004 it took far longer.

We looked for cases where a head of state chosen directly by voters left office early, or a term ended with no one elected, and the country had to hold a new vote. We count the vote as on time if the first round came within 90 days, about the three months Serbia has now. We found six such early votes since 1999, two of them in Serbia. In four, a leader of parliament stood in as head of state.