Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market24 Sep 2026

Will SFI 2027 pay farmers less per hectare than SFI 2026?

BinaryResolves 31 May 2027
History25%
Hunch30%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 31 May 2027
Why these numbers

History. 2 of 8. In two of the eight cases the next round paid lower rates: the insulation fund in 2014 and this scheme in 2026. In three there was no next round, which counts as no.

Hunch.

  • For: On 23 September Defra cut two of its five most used rates so the money would stretch further.
  • For: Defra's annual report plans less farm spending in 2027-28 (£2.08bn).
  • Against: Ministers told the Lords on 13 July that the offer would stay largely stable.
How this resolves

The rates market resolves on GOV.UK: YES if, by 31 May 2027, Defra or the Rural Payments Agency publishes SFI 2027 payment rates and more of the five most-applied SFI26 actions (CLIG3, CHRW2, CSAM3, CAHL2, CIPM4) have a lower rate than a higher one; an action dropped from the offer counts as lower. NO if the rates are the same or higher on balance, or if no SFI 2027 rates are published by 31 May 2027.

The pattern behind it

1 of 8
In 1 of 8 UK cases did the next budget decision add new money for a scheme that ran out early.

We found eight UK cases since 1984 where the fixed money for a regular grant scheme ran out long before its round was meant to end, leaving many people who qualified without help. They are farm schemes and home energy grants. In each we asked two things. Did the next Budget put in new money? And was the next round less generous? New money came once. Most next rounds were smaller, had lower limits or did not come at all.