History. 4 of 8: sent to a full inquiry, or a written plan to send it, within 24 weeks (RedBird IMI day 52, News Corp day 82, BSkyB and ITV day 87, Fox and Sky day 105). Sent to a full inquiry outright: 1 of 8.
Hunch. On 4 November Lisa Nandy wrote that Sky's promises are only voluntary and that she would not rely on them to decide that no closer look is needed.
The inquiry market resolves YES if by 23:59 UK time on 20 April 2027 the culture secretary refers Sky's purchase of ITV M&E Holdings to a phase 2 investigation under section 45 of the Enterprise Act 2002, or publishes a letter or statement that she intends or is minded to make that referral, while letters about the first stage, a decision not to refer or no decision count as NO. It is judged on the CMA case page and DCMS publications on GOV.UK, with BBC News and The Guardian as backup.
We looked for cases where a UK minister issued a notice like this on a media deal under the same 2002 law, and then had to decide on a full inquiry. We found eight since 2007: three TV deals involving Sky and five newspaper deals. For each we checked whether the minister sent the deal to a full inquiry, or said in writing they planned to, within 24 weeks.