History. 1 of 8: once a minister publicly offered to take promises instead of a full inquiry (News Corp and BSkyB, day 119). No such promises were formally accepted in a media deal.
Hunch. In August Lisa Nandy dropped her threat against Paramount's deal once it signed legally binding promises, and on 4 November she said she could take other action instead of a full inquiry.
The promises market resolves YES if by 23:59 UK time on 20 April 2027 the culture secretary publishes a notice or statement proposing to accept undertakings from Sky instead of a phase 2 referral, or has already accepted them, while private talks, new public promises from Sky or Sky saying it has offered undertakings count as NO. It is judged on the CMA case page and DCMS publications on GOV.UK, with BBC News and The Guardian as backup.
We looked for cases where a UK minister issued a notice like this on a media deal under the same 2002 law, and then had to decide on a full inquiry. We found eight since 2007: three TV deals involving Sky and five newspaper deals. For each we checked whether the minister sent the deal to a full inquiry, or said in writing they planned to, within 24 weeks.