History. 3 of 8: let through without a full inquiry (Trinity Mirror day 50, DMG Media day 64, Evening Standard shares day 81). In the Evening Standard deal a court found the time to send it on ran out on day 4. Leave that deal out and it is 2 of 7.
Hunch. On 4 November Lisa Nandy wrote that she would not rely on Sky's voluntary promises to decide that no closer look is needed.
The clearance market resolves YES if by 23:59 UK time on 20 April 2027 the culture secretary publishes a decision not to refer the deal to a phase 2 investigation, including by accepting undertakings instead, while a referral, a stated intention to refer, no decision yet or a deal the companies abandon count as NO. It is judged on the CMA case page and DCMS publications on GOV.UK, with BBC News and The Guardian as backup.
We looked for cases where a UK minister issued a notice like this on a media deal under the same 2002 law, and then had to decide on a full inquiry. We found eight since 2007: three TV deals involving Sky and five newspaper deals. For each we checked whether the minister sent the deal to a full inquiry, or said in writing they planned to, within 24 weeks.