Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market14 Oct 2026

Will tobacco sales to people born after 2008 be illegal from 1 Jan?

BinaryResolves 1 Jan 2027
History4 of 4
Hunch97%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 1 Jan 2027
Why these numbers

History. 4 of 4 sales bans with a date set in law at least 247 days ahead started on that day; in words, 12 of 12 checked sales bans did.

Hunch. Since the Act became law on 29 April, Andy Burnham has become prime minister and James Murray health secretary.

How this resolves

The start market resolves on legislation.gov.uk: YES if on 1 January 2027 section 1 of the Tobacco and Vapes Act 2026 is shown in force and no law made before that day moved the date. GOV.UK guidance, BBC News and The Guardian settle it if the legislation site is late, and a moved date or a ban not in force that day resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

4 of 4
All four times a UK ban on selling a product had a start date set in law eight months or more ahead, it started on that day. None was moved or narrowed before it began.

We looked for cases where the UK, or one of its nations, banned the sale of a product and wrote the start date into the law at least eight months ahead. We found four such bans set from 2010 to 2019, and all four started on the day written in the law. None was moved or narrowed first.