History. 1 of 6: only West Side Story was nominated.
Hunch. Reviews are divided, with 54% of critics positive and a B- from audiences, while the only nominated film had strong reviews (Deadline, 10 Oct).
Resolves on the Best Picture nominees list on oscars.org on 21 January 2027: YES if The Social Reckoning is on it, NO if not. If the date moves, the market resolves on the day the list is published, and Deadline, Variety and The Guardian are the backup.
We looked for cases where a director whose earlier film was up for Best Picture released a new film, and its first wide weekend was called a flop or came in below forecasts in the press at the time. We found six such films from 2021 to 2024, and checked whether each was nominated for Best Picture.