Republican Darline Graham lost South Carolina's Senate race of 3 November 2026 to Democrat Annie Andrews (51.1% to 46.7%, AP, about 99% counted), and a Republican loss counts as YES; BBC News and The Guardian report the result.
History. 5 of 8 from the candidate file: the lead fell in five races, rose in one (Wyoming 1934) and could not be measured in two (Missouri 1918, Pennsylvania 1922, second seat).
Hunch. Only 17% of American adults approve of how Trump handles the cost of living, the issue Annie Andrews has made the centre of her campaign.
The lead market resolves on the official result: YES if the Republican candidate wins by less than Lindsey Graham's 10.3-point lead in 2020, measured in points of all votes for candidates, or loses the seat. NO if the Republican lead is 10.3 points or more; BBC News and The Guardian are the backup.
We looked for cases where a US senator died, the governor appointed someone from the president's party, and the seat then went to the voters in a midterm, in a state that had backed that party for the seat for at least 20 years. We kept only races where the party's candidate had never won an election to public office, as far as the records show. We found eight since 1918, and seven of them were between 1918 and 1938.