Hunch. The index must gain more than 5.5% from its 30 October close by 31 December, and on 29 October oil hit nearly $118 a barrel because of the war with Iran.
The 8,000 market resolves YES if the S&P 500 closes at 8,000 or higher on 31 December 2026, the last trading day of the year, and NO if it closes below 8,000. It settles on the official close from S&P Dow Jones Indices, checked against Guardian and Independent market reports, which decide if the S&P page is closed; a shorter session counts with its official close, and if no close is published, the last valid trade of the main session counts.
We looked for cases where results from one of the ten biggest US companies sent its shares down at least 5% in a day, and the S&P 500 fell with them, less than two months after a record close. We kept the days when the fall was blamed on spending on a new technology growing faster than the money it brings in. We found five such days since October 2016. Four times the index ended that quarter above its close on the day of the fall, but only twice by more than 3.6%, the rise it needed from the 29 October close to reach 8,000.