History. 3 of 7: the main opposition party came first in 1996, 2011 and 2023.
Hunch. The People's Party leads the poll of polls at about 33% on 8 October, with Vox third.
The first-place market resolves on the same results: YES if the People's Party with its regional lists has more seats in Congress than any other party, and NO if another party has as many or more. Politico Europe and The Guardian are the backup.
We looked for cases where a Spanish prime minister called a general election at least a month before the four years were up. We found nine since 1977, and seven with full seat results on official pages. Right-wing parties together won 176 of 350 seats only once, in 2011.