History. 4 of 7 appointed 30 to 37 days after the vote, each time with a winner on at least 159 seats; with 156 or fewer it took 62, 116 and 254 days. Past dates of the first sitting were not recorded, and this time only 13 days separate it from 5 January.
Hunch. The new parliament first sits on 23 December, only 13 days before the date, and the People's Party, near 33% in polls, would need a partner such as Vox.
The appointment market resolves in the BOE: YES if by 5 January 2027 a royal decree appoints the President of the Government after the 29 November election, NO if there is none. Politico Europe and The Guardian are the backup.
We looked for cases where a Spanish prime minister called a general election at least a month before the four years were up. We found nine since 1977, and seven with full seat results on official pages. Right-wing parties together won 176 of 350 seats only once, in 2011.