Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market08 Oct 2026

Will Vox hold a ministry in Spain's government by 5 January 2027?

BinaryResolves 5 Jan 2027
Hunch15%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 5 Jan 2027
Why these numbers

History. No count: Vox sat in Congress after only two of the seven elections, so past elections do not measure this. The question comes from Vox's stated aim.

Hunch. A government has to be appointed first, and the new parliament sits only on 23 December, while Vox says posts are the last thing it negotiates.

How this resolves

Resolves YES if by 5 January 2027 a royal decree in the BOE appoints a Vox member or a person Vox named as a minister, and NO otherwise, including if no government has been formed. Politico Europe and The Guardian are the backup.

The pattern behind it

6 of 7
In six of seven early elections, right-wing parties together won fewer than 176 of 350 seats. Only in 2011 did they win a majority, with 187.

We looked for cases where a Spanish prime minister called a general election at least a month before the four years were up. We found nine since 1977, and seven with full seat results on official pages. Right-wing parties together won 176 of 350 seats only once, in 2011.