Worldwide gross passed $2.33bn by 7 September 2026, third highest of all time behind Avatar and Avengers: Endgame (The Independent, 7 Sep 2026), so the $2.2bn line was crossed before the deadline.
The market resolves on the worldwide lifetime gross for Spider-Man: Brand New Day on boxofficemojo.com. It resolves YES if it shows at least $2,200,000,000 by 23:59 ET on 11 September 2026, cross-checked against Comscore's weekly reporting. Baseline at publication, 20 August 2026: worldwide gross passed $2.0bn on day 17 of release (The Guardian, 19 Aug 2026), leaving roughly $200m to the line with three weeks to run. If that source has not published in time, Variety and Deadline weekend reports settle it.
Only four films crossed $2bn on their first run from 2015 to 2023. We checked what each did after that. The two that got there fast went on to add $200m or more. The two slow ones stopped close to where they crossed.