Does Spider-Man: Brand New Day rank in the all-time worldwide top three by 31 October 2026?
BinaryResolves 31 Oct 2026
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Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
Box Office Mojo's all-time worldwide chart lists Spider-Man: Brand New Day third on $2,519,512,338, about $185m ahead of fourth-placed Avatar: The Way of Water, a lead that cannot be lost by 31 October 2026; The Guardian already called it the third highest-grossing film of all time on 10 September 2026.
Resolved 31 Oct 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on Box Office Mojo's all-time worldwide grosses chart, unadjusted, read at 23:59 ET on 31 October 2026. It resolves YES if Brand New Day ranks third or higher. If that source has not published in time, Comscore and Variety settle it.
The pattern behind it
2 of 4
Two of the last four films to cross $2bn on a first theatrical run added $200m or more beyond the line, and both were fast crossers. Endgame, still the fastest ever to reach the mark, finished at $2.8bn; The Way of Water crossed on day 38 and climbed past $2.2bn. The Force Awakens took 53 days and stalled where it landed; Infinity War went over mid-run and never travelled far past it. Brand New Day's 17-day crossing is quicker than all of them except Endgame. The full record is the same four films, 2015 to 2023.
Only four films crossed $2bn on their first run from 2015 to 2023. We checked what each did after that. The two that got there fast went on to add $200m or more. The two slow ones stopped close to where they crossed.
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