Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market31 Aug 2026

Will both the Ndiaye and Richarlison deals be completed before the deadline?

BinaryResolves 1 Sep 2026
Hunch56%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

Neither leg completed: Iliman Ndiaye joined Manchester City from Everton for £65m rather than Tottenham, with Jack Grealish going to Goodison on a season-long loan instead (Sky Sports, 2 September 2026).

Resolved 1 Sep 2026
How this resolves

Resolves YES only if both clubs announce both completed permanent transfers, on tottenhamhotspur.com and evertonfc.com, by 01:00 BST on 2 September 2026. One leg completing, or either player moving elsewhere, resolves the market NO. If that source has not published in time, Sky Sports and the Premier League settle it.

The pattern behind it

3 of 4
Three of the four verified windows had the summer's biggest Premier League fee flowing to another Premier League club, and the exception was an overseas deadline-day deal. The mechanism is not sentiment about English football. Profitability and sustainability rules reward selling academy and domestically registered players, buyers pay a premium for proven league experience, and clubs facing an accounting deadline find it easier to agree terms with a club under the same rules. Four windows is a thin sample and the exclusions list says which ones we could not verify.

In three of the four summers we checked, a league club got the top fee. We looked at the biggest fee a Premier League club paid in each summer window since 2019. We used only the four summers where a first-hand report, cited below, confirms that fee. For each, we asked one question: was the selling club also in the Premier League? We left out summers we could not check. A reader who can find a source for a missing summer can send it, and it goes in.